Short-Term Rentals01 · Deal Analysis
Honest underwriting — modeling a specific property truthfully, and knowing which numbers you can trust. The independent model with nothing to sell if the deal pencils.
How to underwrite a short-term rental end to end — set honest assumptions, estimate revenue without fooling yourself, model the real cost stack, and reach a go / no-go you can defend.
Matt Nunn · 21 min read
What it covers
Start with the flagship above — everything else in Deal Analysis supports it.
In dependency order — Assume before you calculate — every model inherits its assumptions.
Every model is only as good as its inputs. Set them conservatively and pressure-test them.
ADR, occupancy, RevPAN — and how not to overestimate.
The full operating-cost stack, and why your Airbnb isn't cash flowing.
Cash-on-cash, cap rate, break-even — and which to trust.
The capstone decision, with the calculator attached.
Judgment calls, not how-tos — each weighs the options for your situation.
The guide teaches; the tool implements.
The weekly letter for people who run property as a business. One idea a week on the financial side of ownership — what changed, what it means, and what an operator should do about it. Written for short-term and long-term rental owners alike.
